The Philippine Submarine Procurement Program

Running for decades, the Philippines and its military aims to procure diesel-powered submarines in which it is ideal for an archipelagic nation where such vessel serves as a deterrent to any nation which poses a naval threat in the country.

DISCUSSION OVERVIEW

A Chang Bogo-class submarine of South Korea.
A diesel submarine can suffice Philippine Navy's needs.
Source: Naval Technology

Way back 2013, a submarine office was established by the Philippine Navy (PN) as part of the AFP Modernization Program which at that time is in its full-throttle mode. It is known that the Submarine Procurement itself will be slated on the Second Horizon where it calls on the partial acquisition of around three submarines. 

These are expected to be commissioned in the Third Horizon, all based on the Philippine Navy Sail Plan 2028. Such Sail Plan can be changed without notice upon the discretion of the Navy or the Department of National Defense (DND) so it is at best not to get high hopes with regards to such matters [Rappler]. 

With regards to the very discussion itself about the Submarine Procurements, several forums like the now-defunct Timawa, it's successor DefensePH and Philippine Defense Forces Forum have taken notice of the said ideal procurement that submarine choices and updates are being made. 

Speaking of updates, it was reported that the DND at first rejected the Russian submarine offer (see more: Russian Weapons Options to the AFP) and eventually re-assessing them all together with other shipbuilders specialized for submarines like France's DCNS, Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, SAAB Kockums of Sweden, and of course, South Korea's DSME and HHI which is also the one who won the bidding for the new frigates.

The following points that are about to be given out in this article is an insight into what the forums discussed about the procurement for all over the years plus the possible bidders of the submarine procurement program. 

This will be based on knowledge among defense sites rehashed together where years of discussion and series of articles will be up to one in the expense of the public who deserves an understandable viewpoint suited for their limited knowledge on the matter plus analysis given in the sense that any factors are to be considered such as the cost, quality, performance, combat records, reports and most of all, technicalities based on research plus articles that we can get upon where links will be provided here. This is to take note that this article has a basis to take its stand.

HISTORICAL RECORDS

A DCNS-produced submarine made in France like this one for Chile.
From Defense News

As early as the year 2005, a Philippine Defense Forces Forum contributor started a thread with a defunct link to a NEDA pdf file where the so-called long term plan for the AFP was laid. Take note that it took place 12 years ago where the old AFP Modernization Program is in effect. 

Territorial defense procurements didn't take place until 5 to 7 years later in the former Aquino administration that such weaponry was being considered considering the increasing hegemony against China in the West Philippine Sea which escalated since the Scarborough Shoal incident in 2012. 

The recent procurement plans of the Philippine Navy. Take note that
it calls to procure 6 submarines. Via MaxDefense.

More unto this, it was also well known to a fact, based on DefensePH sources that such procurement program traces back to the former Estrada administration where the office during the time of then-Defense Secretary Orlando Mercado, they issued a press release that submarines are to be procured in 10 years. 

Take note that 10 years after during the former Arroyo administration in the year 2010 that also in 10 years through an AFP press release that submarines are to be procured. Hence, despite all of these announcements that simply doesn't come out of fruition, the armed forces' interest to have a submarine in its arsenal simply didn't wind away considering its significant importance to the Philippines as an archipelagic nation in the sense that naval deterrence is something potential adversaries need to be considered before any plans of invading the Philippines. 

Speaking of interest in the present tense, there are several movements regarding such matters where assessment are just begun. Take note that a submarine office is already in place and a submarine division was just formed under the surface action force specified above. (See more: A PDF file about the Submarine Group; Capt. A Torres, PN)

Given the preferences and the historical information that was laid here, it is given that the Armed Forces really has its eyes on procuring submarine through the years where step-by-step plans are started to have taken place. 

Moreover, what the Russian did at present pushes the Defense Department more to assess the submarines being offered by numerous interested submarine manufacturers that see the potential to the Philippines as a potential customer that may improve their sales pitch upon bagging a contract. And these submarine builders will be assessed together with their products.

THE MANUFACTURER AND THEIR PRODUCTS

Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine
Website: https://www.thyssenkrupp-marinesystems.com/en/home.html.
Submarine products can be accessed here.

An HDW-class submarine model of ThyssenKrupp Marine
at ADAS 2016 - Manila. From MaxDefense

ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) is a subdivision of a greater ThyssenKrupp Company whose specialty is more on engineering which is a hallmark of German ingenuity and integrity. Accordingly, this company set eyes on the Philippine Defense Market as the proof itself is being in ADAS 2016 in Manila where according to the source of the photo-illustration above that draft specification, especially the present assessments given the Russian offer, is being given in TKMS among others. Accordingly, this company offers Meko-class corvettes and HDW Class 209/1400mod submarine.

Technical Data - HDW 209/1400mod
Length, Overall:   ~62 m
Pressure hull ø: ~6.2 m
Surface display: ~1,450 t
Height incl. sail: ~ 12.5 m
Weapon tubes:      8
Crew: 30

With regards to the technical data, the size of the submarine is deemed shorter and needs only around 30 crewmen where it may seem like an ideal for the Philippine archipelagic waters where it may already suffice the necessary patrol/deployments for the Philippine Navy. 

Moreover, German technology is deemed quality-based that such ingenuity is known for being durable where they get the reputation as having a quality-based product that also comes with a price (IOSB - German Engineering.PDF). However, given the uncertainty of what really the Defense Department's technical requirements entailing for its submarine program (which is still unavailable), let there be a benefit for doubt with regards to the potential of the HDW class 209/1400mod to the Navy considering that the contract price, as well as the required specifications that may be given in the near future, will surely affect how the way TKMS plays the game of bagging a contract, assuming that the program is on full throttle.

Speaking of the design, the South Korean Chang-Bogo class submarines do derive from the Type 209 or HDW-209 as in this case. Considering the similarities of the design, it may give some probability that the South Koreans through the DSME will offer the same type of submarines with only the advantage with regards to cost considering the South Koreans having the cheaper labor than those with the Germans [link]. Considerably, the South Koreans improved the design of such submarines that they considered it their own that the Indonesians grabbed the offer [link]. Considerably, these submarines have seen service in several nations which includes Germany, South Korea, and Indonesia which means that logistics will be less of an issue given the cases.

France's DCNS
Website: http://en.dcnsgroup.com/; Products can be accessed here.

Source: Pinterest

Understanding DCNS's potentiality on the deal in this procurement program predates way back three years ago last September 17 to 19, 2014 when then-President Aquino visits France and signs a defense agreement with President Francois Hollande [link]. In this case, it gives the DCNS a chance to get some hands-on the deal wherein like the others, they are also after the contract as well as having the Philippines as a stable market for their products. Speaking of these, this 2014 article of The Diplomat about submarine procurement mentions the availability of SMX-23 submarines on a navy who wants an affordable force of 4-6 submarines such as the Philippine Navy. 

Link for the source here.

Accordingly, Global Security gives the point that aside from being a direct descendant of the Scorpene-class submarines, these so-called stealthy submarines offer agility as well as power suited for shallow waters or littoral kind of geography like the Philippine territorial waters or the West Philippine Sea. 

A bit smaller and having a fewer crew than the TKMS' HDW 209/1400mod, it may be seen as a smaller sub that the Philippine Navy is perhaps looking for. However, take note that a request for information is on its way to different submarine makers like DCNS and its direct rivals. Hence, it may determine the outcome of the procurement program through the given parameters. 

In this case, a small submarine such as the SMX-23 may give an edge for the Philippine Navy which the crew number, as well as the size, may suffice the needs. The only problem for this submarine is that the Andrasta is nothing more of a design concept where it may be an obstacle since the Armed Forces do not accept unproven designs. But then yet, the SMX-23 being based on the earlier Scorpene-class which are in service may suffice such requirements [link].

Sweden's SAAB Kockums
Website: http://saab.com/naval/; http://saabgroup.com/contacts/offices-container/karlskrona-saab-kockums/

SAAB's A-26 Submarine. Source

Designated in Malmö Sweden, this shipyard produces Visby-class corvettes and Gotland-class submarines. With regards to the company itself, SAAB is aiming to get the Philippine market to sell its products like the Sea Giraffe where it may find itself on the Del Pilar-class Frigates or the JAS-39 Gripen which is the all-time favorite of the Philippine Air Force Pilots. SAAB provides a wide range of products which includes submarines of any kind.
Those are:
 - Gotland-class submarine
 - A26 submarine

Considerably, SAAB produced submarines before catering to the Swedish Navy as well as the Singaporean Navy. Those are:
 - Västergötland-class submarine
 - Södermanland-class submarine

Among the submarine products SAAB obtains, it will be ideal for us to assess the A-26 submarine considering that this stealth-featured submarine is the latest product they visualize as well as having various offers in several countries such as Norway and Australia alongside Sweden which it will replace their Götland-class submarines. [link][link][link]
The product in itself is still in the design phase with full production coming in soon as the Swedish government and the two countries who are aforementioned with regards to submarine orders coming soon.

Performance of the A-26 submarine.
[Addendum: It can accommodate 26 personnel]
Source: SAAB; Naval-Technology

The size and tonnage of the A-26 are somewhat a bit similar or approximate to ThyssenKrupp's HDW 209 at around 62 meters and 1,400~1,800 tons. Even the number of personnel needed to get operate onboard is at around 28 to 30. Given the circumstances, it is indeed a stiff one since these submarines simply have minor differences in its technical specifications that may influence the overall performance needed by the Philippine Navy in patrolling its underwater territories. The only advantage the HDW 209/1400 mod against the A-29 is that the former already has its design proven in operations among several navies of the world where it is one requirement the Defense Department considers when procuring any military equipment. But more unto that, given the technical specifications SAAB has to offer on A-29, it may seem a promising thing that a navy is looking for. 

Russian Ministry of Defense (via Rosoboronexport)
Website: http://www.roe.ru/
Products can be accessed here.

The Amur-class submarine, one of the ships offered by Rosoboronexport.
Source: Sputnik

Rosoboronexport is a key Russian agency dealing with exporting and importing Russian weapons all on behalf of the Russian Government. It is known that the Russian Government offers various kinds of military weaponry to a certain country such as the Philippines where submarines such as these are now under assessment alongside different submarine producers mentioned in this article. [link]

Among the products or say, Russian military weaponry that is allowed to be exported by Rosoboronexport, there are two submarines offered by this agency to those who are interested to have it included the Philippines. 

These two submarines are the following:

- Amur 1650 Submarine [link]

- Kilo 636 variant Submarine [link]

These said submarines have different variables in terms of its technical specifications given the different "projects" or "classes" submarines belong which is just like between Russian manufacturers MiG and Sukhoi which produces aircraft which also have a bit different in specifications but still compatible considering that these are upholding Russian military standards which are a bit different to the western ones. These are the following technical specifications of the said submarines offered by Rosoboronexport:

Amur 1650 Submarine Specifications [Source]
- Crew: 35 
- Days Submerged: 25 
- Number of Vertical Launch Systems: 10 
- Number of Weapons: 18 
- Torpedo Tubes: 6 
- Dimensions
  - Beam: 7.10 meter
  - Length: 67 meter
- Performance
  - Max Operating Depth: 300 meter
  - Max Range: 11,112 kilometer
- Speed
  - Top Speed Submerged: 21 knots (10.8 MPS)
- Time
  - Mission Endurance: 45 day
Weight
  - Displacement Submerged: 1,765 ton

Kilo 636-class Submarine Specifications [Source]
- Crew: 52 
- Number of Weapons: 24 
- Torpedo Tubes: 6 
- Dimensions
  - Beam: 9.90 meter
  - Length: 74 meter
- Performance
  - Max Operating Depth: 300 meter
  - Max Range: 13,890 kilometer
  - Max Range Submerged: 400 nautical mile
- Speed
  - Top Speed Submerged: 20 knots (10.3 MPS)
- Time
  - Mission Endurance: 45 day
- Weight
  - Displacement Submerged: 3,125 ton
  - Displacement Surfaced: 2,350 ton

Given the specifications, as well as the alleged Russian offer, one may say that it is a promising opportunity to grab on considering that both Amur and Kilo have sought service to several nations that have close ties with Russia like Vietnam. Moreover, the Kilo 636 variant has better tonnage and size over the other submarines aforementioned. 

The only problem, in this case, is that the Chinese also obtain such submarines in their arsenal especially the Kilo-class. Hence, it may be a problem where they may tap their weaknesses assuming that the Philippines obtained them. The bright side though is that the Chinese obtain a different type of Kilo-class that albeit the same classes have little variations among the other. 

If speaking of that Russian offer, it may better have opted for them to offer the Amur-class submarines since it is all at par with the submarines the other nations offered as well as the Chinese not having such submarines of that class. In the end, it's up to the Russians what submarines will they offer in the case they suit best for the Philippine Navy that they can show the best one over their competitors.

South Korean Manufacturers - Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering (DSME) and Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI)
DSME's website: https://www.dsme.co.kr/epub/main/index.do
HHI's website: http://www.hhiir.com/en/

These South Korean companies offer a wide range of offshore as well as shipbuilding options. That is, from the Commercial ones to the Military or Naval types. The said companies both participated in the Philippine Frigate Acquisition Program where Hyundai bagged the contract. At present, the Letter of Credit for the said ships is on its way for HHI to commence designing the ships.

In the line of their submarines, it is known that the South Koreans obtain the Chang Bogo-class submarines which is one of their main combatants alongside Dokdo-class LHDs, King Sejong-class Destroyers, and Incheon-class frigates in which the Philippine Navy ships will be based upon.

Considerably, the Chang Bogo-class submarines are based on the ThyssenKrupp HDW 209/1200 series in which it is a direct predecessor of the improved HDW 209/1400 which was also featured in this article. Moreover, based on the article made by Naval Technology, the submarine has a length of 56m, a beam of 6.2m, and a draft of 5.5m. 

The submerged displacement of the ship is 1,285t. The Chang Bogo Class submarine can complement 33 crew members. Accordingly, the submarines are armed with 14 SUT Mk.2 torpedoes that can be fired through its eight 533m torpedo tubes. Other than that, several Chang Bogo submarines like the SS Daeyong are capable to fire Harpoon Anti-ship missiles which further enhances its capability. 

Fitted with indigenous systems, this Korean-made German-designed submarine can compete with others considering that Indonesia also ordered several of these fishes from DSME. Accordingly, Hyundai through a 2013 Korean Herald News also produced an improved Chang Bogo class for the Korean Navy through the help of ThyssenKrupp.

Chang Bogo-class submarine ordered by Indonesia, naming
KRI Nagapasa 403.

TIMELINES AND OBSTACLES

Submarine procurement plans as per Sail Plan 2028.

These submarines, as what this Philippine Navy Sail Plan has suggested plans to procure three units in Horizon 2 which will start by the year 2018 and have them delivered in the year 2020. Throughout the period, submarine facilities, various offices, various personnel training, and advancement will be done assuming all of these things will be followed. Take note that such plans can be changed without prior notice considering that the whole Defense Department in the Philippines have prior experience in the so-called "sudden change" of plans such as the Maestrale-class frigates that in the last minute the plan to procure it was scrapped in favor of what is today brand new frigates from South Korea. Moreover, one may definitely argue that the Philippine Navy shall prioritize first the surface vessels such as Corvettes and Frigates before the submarines considering that a huge partition of the fleet consists of ships originated from World War 2. 

Apparently, these ships are slowly in the process of decommissioning which will be replaced by newer vessels sooner or later such as the BRP Iloilo. Another issue is the budget allocation given on a specific project. It is known that the bidding system brings a curse on the whole procurement system, but the budget allocated in a project makes it much difficult considering that it may arouse several problems. Notable examples are the FA-50PH the Philippine Air Force has with Anti-air missiles a separate procurement. 

Another is the brand new frigates that are plagued with a capabilities shortage through "Fitted For But Not With" provisions that also be done through separate procurement. For the case of these submarines, it may be a problem to have a submarine without torpedoes or having maintenance issues where spares also need to get bid out or through negotiations via G2G, one may hope that such obstacles may be overcome or rather, thinking of having the best feasible output the DND or the AFP will bring which they may work out for it in due time.

SUMMARY

The Philippine Navy through its sail plan projects the procurement of submarines soon as part of upgrading the whole armed forces through the AFP Modernization Program. Moreover, having a submarine will mean a minimum, credible deterrent force at sea that will augment the surface vessels Philippine Navy presently have and definitely will have in the future. 

Speaking of which it will bring effective control to its territorial seas safe of foreign intruders. But with these always comes with doubts and unexpected turn of events that it is not a surprise in every project given there is. Out of this program, only one thing is certain. That is, only time will tell about the nature of this program as to whether the way it will materialize that is the best for the defense of all.

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Possible Russian Weapons Options for AFP

In the recent events unfolded where the Russians and the Filipinos are starting to know and improve their relations altogether, it is as well worthy of discussing the possible Russian weaponry options that are based on affordability and having likely to acquire them.

Disclaimer: The options provided in this article are just a mere perspective made by the Author at the time it was published and is no way reflecting current events or situations taking place such as the U.S. implementation of the CAATSA or the Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act wherein it took effect eight months later from the date this webpage has published. (Edited 11-06-2020).

IN THE HEADLINES

Admiral Tributs docked in Pier 15, Manila Harbor.
Courtesy of Reuters.

The Russians just recently have their warship Admiral Tributs, a Russian destroyer together with an oiler Boris Butoma assigned in the Russian Pacific Fleet docked in Manila for a goodwill visit in which it pursues the strengthening of ties among two sovereign states (Philstar). 

These in which it signifies the good intention of this nation to pursue a better relationship to the Philippines brought by President Duterte's Independent Foreign Policy where the government engages in some sort of "Charm offensive" to other powers aside from the US like Russia and China where it gives an idea that pragmatic relations in terms of diplomacy and trade are indeed a good thing. 

Then here comes Ambassador Igor Khovaev, Russian envoy to the Philippines having a press conference on board the ship where he signifies the intention of the Russian government to provide the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) with various Russian weaponry (Reuters) in which it is a bit different in the ecosystem than those from NATO which gives an interoperability headache for the military where customization will be made. 

But then again, it is still possible for the AFP to adapt, adjust and procure Russian weaponry on hand wherein in deals such as this, it gives the Philippines the capability it needs as well as the benefits it brings out from the deal.

OVERVIEW

The Russian weapons and systems are a bit different in format and ecosystem than those in the west. Also parallels with that there are different ways the equipment is maintained and operated. These in which are the result of the different paths undertaken by two nations during the cold war where different standards on the weapons systems vary among these nations in which the systems evolve as part of the arms race among two nations. 

At present, both countries and the allies which rely on them are using either NATO-based weaponry or the Russian, Eastern-bloc weaponry, with several countries diversify on these nature of weapons systems with the prominent examples of India, Malaysia, and Indonesia. In this discussion, it will pertain to the military weapons that Russia may offer to the Philippines where the downsides are also coming into the picture.

THE CANDIDATES

Sukhoi Su-35. This jet is a creation out of Russian Ingenuity.
From Wallpapercave.com

Russia has a lot to offer for the Philippines to have. Their weaponry as resulted from the researches made as well as the Cold War industrial complexes of the former Soviet Union, Russia inherited and continues to improve their weaponry in which they hope can compete with other nations like the United States. Among notable post-Cold-War weapons that they are being built are the S-400 surface to air missile platforms, Borei-class ballistic submarines, Admiral-Gorshkov-class frigates, T-14 Armata tank, PAK-FA T-50 jet, and several others.

Speaking of those, the Philippines has no plans to procure those weapons mentioned above due to their costly acquisition as well as their maintenance just like the Cold War-based weapons in which the AFP will be facing upon acquisition. These in which may be solved through customization where Western-based mechanisms can be integrated but all of that is not enough to get it comparable to the Western-based weaponry. Despite all that, it is still as hopeful that the weapons offered will still be a force to get reckoned with, where it will give leverage against foreign aggressor there is.

Now, let us present the possible Russian weaponry that is feasible as well as capable enough for the AFP to get enticed and has the interest to procure on. 

In this case, the first will be presented are the ones that the government really is interested in -- guns, helicopters, and drones.

Guns and Rocket Launchers
Avtomat Kalashnikov AK-101

From Modern Firearms

The AK-101 will be seen as an ideal firearm for the AFP since it bears 5.56x45 NATO cartridges in which it is a standard for the NATO on which the AFP is based on. Given its similarities as well as being a standard-issue in the Russian military alongside AK-74, this firearm will definitely be one of the weapons offered to the AFP where interoperability will be less or, not much of a problem since its ammo uses the ones that the M-4 rifles obtain. This in which may give the AFP the exact firepower it needs where multiple sources of firearms is a better thing to have. (Multi-source firearm, PDA)

SV-98 Sniper Rifle

The SV-98 Sniper rifle that can be loaded with 7.62x51mm NATO
rounds if being customized. Via Wikimedia Commons

These Izhmash-produced snipers that seen action in Russian theaters of war like in Chechnya (link), such said weapons are known to be loaded with 7.62x54mmR which is prevalent in the Russian arsenal. This in which can be customized a bit into the NATO-standard 7.62x51mm which only several millimeters to spare. Given the circumstances, the DND seeks to have such firearms in line with drones and helicopters where this sniper rifle will be a good candidate for an ideal weapons options to the AFP.

Dragunov SVD rifles

The Dragunov SVD Sniper Rifle. Via Wikimedia Commons

This sniper rifle, like it's SV-98 cousin, these Izhmash-produced weapons are also loaded with the same 7.62x54mmR cartridge that is prevalent in Russia. These in which can also be customized to the NATO standard 7.62x51mm cartridge that will definitely minimize or eliminate any interoperability issues with the NATO-based AFP weaponry. This in which may help the AFP's Sniper Corps in different branches to get their jobs done.

RPG-7

An Afghan soldier firing an RPG-7 Rocket launcher.
Courtesy of Wikimedia Commons

Considerably, this weapon has deemed the replacement of Philippine Army's recoilless weapons as this MaxDefense Article is saying considerably that such weapons, albeit being designed by Russian bureaus, is being produced in the United States through the company named Airtronic USA where such rocket launcher was found out to be easy to produce considering its open-source license for each and every producer to use. 

It was then found out in the later updates that Airtronic will not be the one who will produce the RPG-7 to the AFP via Foreign Military Sales (FMS), but rather it is a Bulgarian Company Armaco JSC. Details from the article setting aside, it is a good thing for the Russians to offer such weaponry to the AFP where such rocket launcher is badly needed upon replacing the old ones. Albeit the official sources not reporting about this, but upon analysis, it seems that having RPG-7 on the table will be an interesting offer for the AFP to decide in due time.

Helicopters
Mil Mi-17

A fully-armed Mil Mi-17. Courtesy of Pinterest.

Codenamed "Hip" by NATO, this transport helicopter made by Kazan Helicopter Plant is something that the Philippine Air Force has its eyes on, even before Pres. Duterte rises to power. 

This helicopter is seen as an improved and more powerful version of Mil Mi-8 which is also codenamed as "Hip" where its improvements will be seen as an enticing offer to the AFP which it will complement the UH-1 choppers the Philippine Air Force have wherein a certain division of troops will be airlift across the archipelagic nation where such helicopters are badly needed.

Mil Mi-24

It is nicknamed a flying tank by its Soviet Pilots.
From Battle Machines.

This is one of Russia's multipurpose helicopters there is. Codenamed "Hind" by NATO, this helicopter is primarily used as a gunship specialized in Close Air Support or Counter-Insurgency missions like the missile and gun suppression on key targets on the ground. 

With the counterinsurgency operations in the south, the Philippine Air Force may have opted for it where it's primarily gunship features will help them succeed in the operations where it is presently done by AW109 and MD-520 light attack helicopters. 

Moreover, it can be also used as a transport helicopter like the Mi-17 and definitely may augment or complement the UH-1 choppers and Bell 412s the Philippine Air Force obtains. Used by 50 other users across the world, logistics will be less of an issue for this case where the same will apply on the Mi-17 with about 60 users. Its operational history can be seen here.

Drones
Russian UAVs.

Russian UAVs such as Kamov Ka-132 (link), Mikoyan Gurevich Skat (link), Yakovlev Pchela (link) and several others can be a good option for the Philippine Air Force, with the Skat being less armed or definitely not a good option where the AFP is looking for small surveillance drones that give an overview of the battlefield. These in which may help the air force a bit based on the deals. However, such deals may be taken over by Israel where IAI may offer better drones or UAVs for the air force. Speaking of which, it will be on the Defense department's disposal with regards to such decision...

Other possible weapons deals

The Russians have more to offer to the Armed Forces of the Philippines on the circumstances that the Department of National Defense (DND) may opt to have soon. Albeit the confirmations that helicopters, UAVs, and firearms, other weapons may give benefit the AFP upon the basis of affordability, maneuverability, and performance that entices the eyes of the decision-making people in the DND. In this case, however, like any other deals with the Indonesians and South Koreans, there will be a sort of Memorandum of Understanding where both sides agree on a deal (InterAksyon).

In this case, this "other possible Russian Weapons Candidates" will be determined by three things: Affordability, feasibility, and the willingness the Russians to sell those weapons based on recent pronouncements that will aim at these things: jets, submarines, and other weapons the Philippines can afford aside from helicopters, light weapons and drones. 

Submarines
Kilo-class Submarines

B-265 Krasnodar, a Kilo-class submarine of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Via Wikimedia Commons

Price: $200million ~ $350million (est) per unit, depending on contract terms. Source: [link][link]

The ship is seemed to being offered by Russia to the DND Secretary Lorenzana where in turn such deal was turned down for now due to the prioritization of weapons mentioned before this part. Albeit the rejection, it is still not dismissive that the submarines will once again be offered to the DND where chances of being acquired are still there, in a sense that customization can be made to minimize interoperability issues. 

However, such deals can also get compromised by the offers from other nations such as South Korea's Chang Bogo class which can be out from the deals of FA-50PH and Hyundai Heavy Industries missile-fired frigates or the Gotland-class of Sweden that is also considered by the Philippine Navy and DND. All of which, remains to be seen where submarines are to be procured in between the second and third horizons of the Navy's Sail Plan 2028.

Fighter & Trainer Jets

MiG 29/35

MiG 35 - An advanced version of MiG 29.

Price: ~$29Million/unit (approx). Source: [link]

Aside from submarines, it is also imperative for the Russians to a possible offer of such jets to the Philippine Air Force. The fact there is that, it already took place in the 90s whereupon the downfall of the Soviet Union, the newly-formed Russians offer MiG fighters to PAF that a deal seems to be probable on sight. However, the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 puts the whole plan to scrap where procuring MRFs are no longer prioritized until 20 years later as well as putting the Old AFP Modernization Program (RA 7898) out of worth. This does not stop the Russians in having the possibility of offering it again to the Philippines albeit there is no official news about it, yet. This may remain to be seen in due time since for now, the administration is keen to eliminate the insurgent threats where these mighty interceptors are not yet that relevant, at least until they change the focal point to pure territorial defense.

Sukhoi Su-30/Su-35

Russian Air Force Su-30. Via Pinterest

Price: 
Su-27: $37.5 million/unit approx (MKI variant: $38million each), depending on contract terms and variants given. Source: [link][link][link]
Su-35: $65 million/unit approx. Source: [link]

Like the MiG 29s, the Russians may be keen on pursuing these assets where this platform is proven to have integrated with western avionics the same way as the Indians did with their Su-30MKI and the Malaysians with their Su-30MKM. Speaking of which, these Su-27-derived and upgraded aircraft may also give the Philippines the force to get reckoned with having a true blue MRF flying over the skies. However, just like the MiG 29s as well as the other jets in the arsenal, overhauling for the engines may take more often than their western counterparts in which it will make the maintenance more expensive. That is, despite having customization just to minimize the interoperability issues where Murphy's Law is perfectly applied to scenarios like this one.

Yakovlev Yak-130

It was then a competitor against the FA-50PH in which it lost.
Via Airplane Pictures.

Price: $15million, depending on contract terms given. Source: [link]

This combat training aircraft was then offered in the bidding for a squadron of Lead-in fighter trainer jets way back in 2012. However, it was then lost to the Korean Aerospace Industries' TA-50 deal (which eventually becomes the FA-50PH deal). Despite all that, the Russians may still consider these trainer jets since such fuselage is affordable as well as having closer relations to Russia making this a mere possibility. But in this, there's the downside which is that the FA-50PH will probably more reliable in the sense that the AFP may not consider these jets due to logistical efficiency practices within the armed forces. That means having lesser types of jets operated in its inventory. With these matters, such a jet will definitely put on the sidelines in a while unless official news breaks out.

Infantry fighting vehicles
BMP series (BMP-1/2/3)

A Russian BMP-2 in a 2009 parade. Via Wikimedia Commons

Price: BMP-3 = $3.2 million ~ $4 million. Source: [link]

Another possible purchase will be this infantry-fighting vehicle where several defense outlets a long time ago have been discussed at. (Timawa is down but it was also used to discuss there). This in which provides good weaponry in which the Russians may provide to the AFP. However, the Philippine Army already has its M-113 Armored Personnel Carriers or APCs in its arsenal with several modified into Infantry Fighting Vehicles or IFVs where it was armed with remote-controlled guns modified with the help from Israel's Elbit Industry. This which, like the Yak-130, will be put on the sidelines unless the government really is interested in it where official reports about it will get out.

Other Options

Other Russian military options are also possible but the probability for purchase regarding it is either low or non-prioritized. Included in this option is the more sophisticated weaponry like S-300, S-400, Gepard-class frigates, Steregushchy-class corvettes, Su-34, Su-37, nuclear weapons, and other lesser-probable weaponry. Take note that such procurements are remote considering the provisions on the constitution banning nuclear weapons in the country as well as the sophistication of these said weapons that make such procurements less possible to be procured.

THE DOWNSIDES

Speaking of Russian military weapons for the AFP, it may give an advantage when it comes to territorial defense. But all of it comes at a cost. In other words, having an affordable procurement that may suffice in the short term may be a costly thing in the long term for these weapons. Speaking of which, these weapons are different in format from its western counterparts where maintenance, logistics, and interoperability may face a problem in a NATO-standardized Armed Forces of the Philippines.

Take this IHS Janes Article for instance about the reported diversification of weapons system by procuring helicopters from Airbus which is a western-based company. Accordingly, as per analysis, this pertains to the Russian military weapons and its problematic aftersales program where maintenance, logistics, and interoperability-wise, gives an armed force the problem in which it is deemed costly.

Accordingly, we may quote the things about Russian weaponry in this article with the same author on another website about defense matters...

Technically-wise, Russian weapons are indeed one of the best there is in the market where its performance equates to its mere industrial value way back to the Cold War years where in-depth research and arms race do the work. Hence, the fruits of such technological advancement are benefited by the Russian Federation from the now-existent Soviet Union. The hallmarks of its weapons are ranging from tanks to SAM (Surface-to-air missile), attack helicopters to attack jets and submarines to battlecruisers.

However, these things throughout the 1990s dwindled a lot since the downfall of the Soviet Union. And it is also the mere fact that the newly-formed Russian Federation offered its weaponry to the then Philippine Government under Pres. Cory Aquino and is considered on the old AFP Modernization Program drafted by then-Pres Ramos at that time. The sad news there s that no Russian weapons have been successfully made within the Armed Forces as the Modernization Program goes to foil during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

Now, the Russians are at it again, offering their best weapons there is to the President whose intention is at a striking change from its traditional ally, the United States into the what so-called the independent foreign policy. And that means looking what the Russians, as well as the Chinese and other suppliers have to offer.

So, here's the thing about the Russian weaponry -- they are economically speaking, affordable to purchase. And that is advantageous to the Russians upon selling those to the countries whose economy is at its normalistic pace like the Philippines. However, the problem with these weapons comes at three points - compatibility, logistics and maintenance.

1. Compatibility (or interoperability) - Russian-based hardware is different in ecosystem than those on NATO-based western weaponry. It was like having an Apple computer using Mac OS as its software as comparable to the mainstream Microsoft-based systems. As far as Philippines is concerned, its weapons are primarily Western-based since through the years it aligns to what the Americans and most of the Europeans have. These in which, must be cope up first since this issue is detrimental to the next two points. (This is something that the AFP shall consider where adjustment period is high unless the tech gap was narrowed due to customization/integration with western properties.)

2. Logistics - One of the issues must be fixed upon is logistics. In the event of problematic failures on any of Russian-based systems, one must either send it back to Russia for repairs or buying spares to the adjacent territories who offer such necessity like Vietnam. The primary solution to this problem is for the Russians to set-up shop in the Philippines or, better yet, find a local partner who can do such repair and spare support stuff for them. These in which saves a lot of money when it comes to logistics.

3. Maintenance - Russian weapons in the long run are not that efficient considering that it takes more overhaul times than its Western counterparts. This is something the Russian needs to improve to have a PH-based variant where it is a improved version where it is much reliable and have a maintenance which can equate enough to the western parts.

Speaking of these points given, such downsides are needed by the AFP to consider what weapons will they get, and with that, the Russians shall consider the weapons it will offer to the AFP where it is enticing enough as well as a good thing to push and make sales running. Out of these possible weapons options given, only several will be ideal weapons based on what the DND presently needs without any obstacle given (and these are analytical in nature). These are primarily firearms, drones, and other light items such as vests and helmets.

CONCLUSION

The President, the cabinet, and the Russian dignitaries plus officers
doing the iconic Fist sign of President Duterte. Via PressReader.

The improving relations between Russia and the Philippines serve as a primary sign that the Russians may offer these said weapons in the sense that it may find ideal to the armed forces. 

However, these things will never just deal and immediately procure without any conditions like for instance, having a Mi-17 or Mi-24 may serve as a logistical nightmare wherein the PAF already runs different types of helicopters in the arsenal. In that case, though, existing helicopters such as Bell 412 and AW109s will be in favor of since those are the ones that are already in the PAF arsenal. Another is the rifles. 

It is deemed possible for the AFP to have AK-101s, RPG-7s Dragunov rifles, and drones since it seems that the Department of National Defense is after such weapons albeit that it can be changed as well as the decisions about it and the same may apply to other weapons candidate here which leaves to the perusal or rather, the decision of the Defense Department. 

But then again, these matters will never downplay the possibility for the Philippines to have such weapons considering that such a decision may be remote for today, it will be different by tomorrow or by the next day where the AFP will diversify weapons sources that have its advantages on multiple sources and a logistical disadvantage. 

Overall, the Russian weaponry, as well as the western ones, will definitely benefit the Philippines to protect its national sovereignty against any potential adversary wherein it does not favor the West nor the East, but rather for the benefit of the Filipino people who deserve to live peacefully.

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