Horizon 2 and the Budget Obstacle

As the horizon one nears its end, another phase of the Armed Forces of the Philippines' Modernization Program opens where along with it comes wonderful opportunities wherein more sophisticated weaponry and the strategies, as well as the skills it coincides, are on its way. It goes with promising procurement policies and lineups as well as obstacles like political will and budget. All of this will be discussed in this article.

OVERVIEW - THE FAST-APPROACHING TIMELINE

This Horizon includes MRFs like the SAAB Gripen. Photo and aircraft
for reference use only.

At the time of this article was published, we are now slowly approaching the end of the first stage or as what it was called the Horizon 1 of the revised AFP Modernization Program which spans from 2013 to 2017. Apparently, the Armed Forces of the Philippines pursues to have a world-class military with minimum credible defense capabilities from domestic defense to territorial ones. Speaking of which, it will improve their mandate to defend the sovereign nation against various threats from localized insurgents to foreign adversaries. 

Horizon 2 plans obtain the most essential weapons procurement that will give a huge boost to the Philippine Armed Force's military capabilities and mandate than what the Horizon 1 can supplement. In such a manner, the primary contents of the projects within this horizon range from additional two frigates to multi-role fighter jets as well as from Shore-based weapons systems to attack helicopters and fast crafts with the lists go on and on across the branches in the military where such kind of military assets surely provide a great boost for the military's firepower than it may have for decades.

In any plan, there will always be obstacles. And with regards to obstacles, it may be ranging from budgeting to political will. Upon the latest reports given, the budget allocated to this horizon amounted to around 100 billion Pesos or 1.9 billion US Dollars. In such a case, basing on the number of military equipment as well as the price of each big-ticket projects, it seems to be like such amount of money is insufficient or not deemed enough to satisfy the needs. Hence, the point of this discussion will be focused on this kind of matter. 

REVIEWING THE HORIZON ONE

This is a modified M-113 APC/IFV upgraded by Elbit. Courtesy of
MaxDefense

The horizon one spans from 2013-2017. And as far as this is concerned, we are almost approaching the end of what is so-called the first step in modernizing the whole Armed Forces of the Philippines. Speaking of which, there are projects within this horizon that are already materialized and there are some that are still materializing or in process for that matter.

As for the Philippine Army, there are still at around four projects that are still not yet completed and still on the process of procuring them or rather, being rehashed into the second horizon like the Shore-based missile system which is now called as Land-based missile system considering that the former becoming a separate project for the Navy. 

At this step of the modernization program, there really is a great emphasis on the big-ticket projects that each of the military branches do have like the Navy's Tarlac-class Landing Platform Docks, Del Pilar-class Patrol Frigates and the soon-to-have missile-armed frigates from South Korea, Air Force's FA-50PH, Medium-lift aircraft, Leonardo AW-109 Power gunships, Bell 412 Combat Utility Helicopters, two more C-130Ts and the incoming AW-159 antisubmarine helicopters in which its arrival will be next year. 

For the Army in this horizon, they have additional M-113s  from the United States via Excess Defense Article (EDA) plus several modified M-113s which was upgraded into fully-armed Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) by Israel's Elbit Systems as well as CAMOPAT or the new, well-blended camouflage pattern for the Battle Dress Uniform (BDU) from Hyperstealth Biotechnology Corporation from Canada and M-4 rifles for the soldiers to use. 

Assets such as FA-50s and Tarlac-class Landing Platform Docks are now subjecting to complete its respective deliveries not later than May this year. Moreover, upon these things being materialized, it is deemed good that the AFP is somehow gathering its forces as to what it is being planned at. 

However, the assets laid out for Horizon 1 alone cannot suffice the needs. And with this, the other two horizons or phases of the whole modernization program have its own share of military procurement that will help achieve the goal of a minimum credible defense posture.

BIG TICKET PROJECTS AND THE BUDGET OBSTACLE

Revised AFP Modernization Program Phases.

In procuring military assets just like each and every acquisition requires funding whereas per the standards of the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), it was undertaken through several processes prescribed where it will be undertaken procedures such as the multiyear program as what this law about the AFP Modernization Program prescribes for (See Section 5 of the said law)

Giving more emphasis, the phases have its own share of the overall budget wherein it was specifically allocated to the various projects as per respective plans among the Army, the Air Force, and the Navy. 

That is alongside the annual appropriations of the budget of the Armed Forces within the allocated share of the Defense Department which it comes to the increase of funding considering the increasing number of materiel and personnel which is deemed precedential as the whole armed forces take it to a whole level. 

Before digging deeper, let there be a discussion first as to what projects which in particular ones that are essential the AFP laid for the Second Horizon so as for the sake of better vantage point as proportionate to the budget, in particular, the significant ones where it gives a great impact to the overall capabilities of the armed forces.

Air Force - The Flight Plan, Second Horizon.

The timeline of the Flight Plan implementation where segments
such as doctrine, funding and exercises emphasized.

The Philippine Air Force has its particular procurement plan which is part of the whole Modernization Program wherein its name is the Flight Plan 2028. We will not discuss it deeper since various outlets are already discussed. But for this discussion, it is worthy to have the second horizon part of this plan of the air force wherein several parts of an ideal air defense system may be procured upon.

As for their case, the second horizon calls for the procurement of two to three squadrons of multirole fighters, radar for early detection, patrol aircraft, additional helicopters, among others. 

Given the timeline, the second horizon is deemed a moment of truth for the air force where through the years of only having light fighters like the F-5 and today's FA-50PH which are presently classified as Lead-in Fighter Trainer or LIFT, it may be the first to have a fully-functioned multirole fighter where it may have an effective hi-low mix of fighter jets in the inventory or somewhat to augment the FA-50 light fighter trainers in which such jets saw combat recently on bombing insurgents up. 

Moreover, these said fighter jets are seen as essential in developing an effective air defense system wherein in accordance to the flight plan, weapons procurement will help enhance the so-called Philippine Air Defense Identification Zones where in due time it will achieve up to area readiness one from the present area readiness four.

Aside from multirole fighters or MRFs, the said horizon also calls for procuring air defense system mechanisms ranging from AWACS to land-based radar as well as other necessary weapons that will help protect the skies from intruders in the air in which it includes additional LIFT aircraft like the FA-50 where it calls to have six to 12 more units (see graph below.) 

These in which as what it intends at will secure the airspace as well as having a vantage point where ruling the skies are a necessity to win a conflict. Other from the jets, night capable attack helicopters are also considered where apparently at present, PAF's AW-109 gunships are equipped with FLIR thermal imaging/night vision sensors that aids pilots with regards to conducting nighttime operations as well as aiming at targets in the dark.

A table that gives an idea as to what kind of equipment
and the quantity that the PAF is looking for. From Flight Plan 2028 report.

Training of the personnel, as well as the ground crew, are also part of this program. Apparently, the use of FA-50PH really do serve as a transition platform for the pilots to enhance as more of such combat aircraft may be introduced on wherein for at least a decade the Philippine Air Force doesn't have any fighter jets after the retirement of the last of F-5A/Bs in 2005 which takes the toll with regards to the effectiveness of defending the airspace. These in which are slowly being suggested and putting back in place once again.

Navy -  The Desired Force Mix/Sail Plan

Hyundai Heavy Industries' partial design of the Navy's new missile-firing
frigate. Final design to be out later this year.

Like the air force, the navy also has a lineup of weapons to be procured in which it ranges from fast attack crafts to corvettes as well as having frigates and command/control structures such as the Tarlac-class Landing Platform Dock.

In the second horizon, assets like two additional missile-guided frigates, six new corvettes, and even three submarines for that manner are seen wherein these said naval assets improves the capabilities of the navy to protect and defend out the seas considering that the Philippines in itself geographically speaking is an archipelago wherein a decent navy with a credible defense output can suffice the needs of protecting Philippine waters especially now with numerous reports of continuous intrusions with the latest being on Benham Rise. 

Also unto this matter, the said horizon it is expected for the navy to retire the remaining World War 2 era ships by 2020 where the projects slated at this phase may be seen as a probable replacement for the older hulls which at present is still functioning and operating in the seas which from the recent years shows the problems plaguing the navy in which one may hope that it will be improved as newer hulls are coming in and several more are expected to come if it goes according to plan as the time goes by. 

These in which remains to be seen where the lineup in the phase may change upon the discretion within the armed forces. As for the fast attack crafts, partial reports suggest that Israeli Super Dvora and Shaldags are offered to the Philippine Navy in which the results about it remain to be seen and to be released in due time.

The lineup of assets is shown in this graph from the Navy years ago.

In the graph shown above, the Second Horizon aside from those aforementioned also calls for additional medium-lift helicopters wherein it will be designated or embark on the Landing Platform Docks like the Tarlac-class as it is intended for supplemental support assets that will help transport necessary provisions whenever and wherever it needs. 

Also, alongside the asset comes the necessary training and infrastructure training where assessment in every matter of consideration from personnel to facilities where it will retain the functionality of the hulls for the due time in which enhancing the skills and experience hones further for the effectiveness of using these assets in combat.

Army - The Transformation Roadmap 2028.

The Army's new camouflage pattern from Hyperstealth Canada.
Courtesy to the photo owner.

Unlike the Air Force and the Navy, the Philippine Army doesn't really show in particular about its weapons lineup despite that various reports of modernization of its assets and doctrine as well as facilities, reorganization and personnel are being made piece by piece.

In the Philippine Army's recent planning, it is noticeable about the improvements made in the horizon one which in particular it deals with RCWS-armed M-113s and New camouflage patterns for battle dress uniforms for better blending to the environment. 

Aside from that, the Army is also opting for a Land-Based Missile System wherein it is originally called the Shore-Based Missile System until just recently the Navy has a separate program of the same name. 

Also, the army is opting for night vision goggles wherein it will improve nighttime capabilities for the troops on the ground as well as the plans for additional IFVs and even tanks wherein such things about it remains to be seen considering that issues on infrastructures, logistics, operations, and maintenance are deemed to be considered and further details about it may release at its necessary due time.

Albeit to the lack of details at present about the Army's procurement program in Horizon 2 (an article for this topic will be up soon), it is still deemed promising where for the AFP in general aside from the Navy and the Air Force, modernizing the whole military infrastructure of the Philippines is deemed an imperative for a nation where defense becomes a necessity as various threats do intensifies from time to time.

The Budget Issue

2017 Annual Budget. Several Big Ticket Projects undertake
Multi-year funding. Via PhilStar.

In every procurement, there are always obstacles that need to overcome to make military asset acquisitions a reality to further enforce capabilities. And with this, the main obstacle for this horizon is indeed more on budget allocation.

Even as early as the year 2015, it was already stated that the horizon 2 budget sets to allocate at around 100billion pesos or in that year's exchange rates, US$2.1 billion. Two years later at present, such funding remains at 100billion pesos or a deferred exchange rate of US$1.9 billion. 

Speaking of which, given the budget allocation concerning the number of military assets procured, it seems that the said allocation is insufficient to suffice what the military presents with regards to acquisition projects where it may hamper modernization efforts in a sense that the Armed Forces will be not that "fully modernized" or capable for that matter where the aim of having a Minimum Credible Defense Posture may not be achievable in due time. 

Somehow, the said budget may also change considering that the SecDef also plea for an increase equated to around 2 to 2.5% of the Philippine Gross Domestic Product or GDP. Apparently, for the budget concerning the military proposals, it can or may only be said in due time if the Philippine Government may agree on the procurement proposal the AFP pleas that are beyond the given 100 billion peso budget or to somehow being stick to it while risking having projects with Fitted For But Not With (FFBNW) provisions or watered-down assets. 

Given the circumstances, it can be said that the budget in itself may be subject to change depending on the conditions or rather at the discretion among the parties concerned. Speaking of which, it is deemed worthy to have a close watch as well as having an update about the said matters about horizon 2 and its budget.

WHAT REMAINS...

Horizon 2 is somewhat another phase of the AFP Modernization Program where a series of military acquisition project lineups are in place. And for that manner, these phases as further signs of progress will further enhance the overall capabilities of the Armed Forces as it really aims for a highly competitive military which makes a guaranteed deterrence against all threats the Philippines as a nation may face. 

Moreover, the said procurements having series of obstacles like the lack of budget allocation is a normal thing that may be solved through political will and effective budget management. These in which guarantee that taxpayer money does worth it. 

Take note, the Second Horizon budget may change or not but one thing remains, which is that the AFP Modernization Program is still ongoing albeit the phase and the problems it coincides that somehow, progress is being made. Somewhat a capable-based military is preferable over a budget-based one.

=================================

UPDATES AS OF JULY 16, 2017

In connection to this article, ADAS or Asian Defense, Security, and Crisis Management Exhibition and Conference released their primer which pertains to the Horizon two procurements wherein the initial costs of the projects accumulated in this Horizon reaches at around Php 300 Billion or more for it to get implemented. So to speak, it is beyond the Php 100 Billion budget proposal for this horizon as per the discussion is given. For more information, check their website at www.adas.ph.

To see the details clearly, just check the photo.

As being discussed here, the lists are deemed the usual sight as per the planning set by the AFP Modernization Program which each branch with their "plans" or "roadmap" which makes it has a minimum credible defense by the year 2028. 

So to speak, the chances for the plan or its setup may change as the time goes by considering the factors that may affect it especially the budget which at present may be increased due to the confidence ADAS posted in their infographic. In this sense, it is better to see whether it will happen or not. But with this always comes the hope that the AFP will fully enhance its capabilities that it is looking for years from now.

Share:

Read More

AFP's Delivery of Weapons in May 2017 and More Procurement Plans

In the news that have blurted out, it seems that the Philippine Armed Forces' military procurement projects like the FA-50PH and the Tarlac-class LPDs will deliver within a month with the former being ahead of the schedule which is detrimental to the positivity of having good deals in the future.

IN THE NEWS

FA-50PH dropping Mk. 82 bombs. The Philippines is the first user to use such jets in actual combat.

The Philippine Air Force is expecting to complete its delivery of 12 units (or one squadron) of FA-50PH by May, which is ahead of the schedule given by the contract of December 2017. Meanwhile, it is also expecting that the BRP Davao del Sur (LD-602) will also get delivered in the said month or earlier considering the terms of its contract which specifies the date to May 10. Speaking of which, earlier arrival of assets than what the contract really provides really help improve the overall capabilities of the whole armed forces, as well as the promising potential of having better deals of their respective manufacturers like the Korean Aerospace Industries or KAI and PT PAL Persero of Indonesia.

FUTURE PLANS

BRP Tarlac. Via update.ph website.

The plans as per the Philippine Navy Sail Plan, as well as the Philippine Air Force Flight plan really emphasizes the intentions of procuring more units of these said military assets considering that it will really help the AFP or the Armed Forces of the Philippines improve its capabilities in which it was part of improving territorial defense posture which helps the nation protect itself against foreign adversaries.

In such a manner, the Indonesian shipbuilder shows that aside from the two Tarlac-class Landing Platform Docks the Philippine Navy have, there is an option calling for procuring two more ships or in the Sail Plan, three LHA-class Strategic Sealift Vessels where aside from having a larger landing pad for helicopters to land, it can also be serve as an amphibious vessel with additional air cover, as well as being a hospital ship. On that case, despite having corruption issues within the Industry, PT PAL still resumes to deliver the second SSV or Tarlac-class Landing Platform Docks on time so in that such timely delivery will be an added value on the competitiveness alongside cost-effective and the quality of the vessel. 

With the South Korean aircraft manufacturer meanwhile, the Philippine Air Force calls to have around six or twelve more units which was based on plans being laid on that period where it is better to wait for the second horizon to come up which will determine the final number of the additional orders that the air force have for FA-50s. In the case of the Philippine Navy, it is deemed calling to replace the old World War 2 vessels where Landing Platform Docks are to be better amphibious as well HADR platforms where it will be better than the WW2-era Landing Ship Tank vessels that can also be subjected to decommissioning depending to the 2020 plan. 

Meanwhile, the Horizon 2 will be slated by next year where an approximate Php 100 billion or US$1.9 billion will be allocated. These in which are deemed promising, which it is the period where procurements like additional missile-armed frigates, multirole fighters and long-range patrol aircraft. And speaking of budgeting matters, one may seem that it does not satisfy the needs. More on the details coming up on the next article primarily focused on the Second Horizon soon here on Pitz Defense Analysis.

Speaking of which, the year 2017 especially on the last of the ordered batches of FA-50s and the BRP Davao del Sur (LD-602) is indeed a good thing for the armed forces where procurement plans are deemed all set for next year as the one horizon milestone closes and another opens as the new opportunities of improving the capabilities of the AFP comes by where it may help to defend the nation in minimum credible defense posture.

PROMISING FUTURE

In such a manner, it is an imperative for the armed forces to further enhance its abilities where procuring more sophisticated weapons a key for emphasizing the stance of defending the nation. And in that case, brand new ones may take time until being delivered as stipulated in a contract. For that case, an earlier delivery of contracted military equipment is a big plus for the companies where it is deemed a pitch for a possible future sales where the benefit goes on both sides. Speaking of which, it makes things promising where reputation makes it better for deals to take place. Simply speaking, it is deemed a good thing where procurements are realized that capabilities are increased. Such is a thing for a bright future for the nation...

(c) 2018 PDA Original Edition.

(c) 2022 PDA Second Edition (revised 4-4).

Share:

Read More

How Ideal is a 4th Hamilton Cutter in the Philippine Navy?

The Philippine Navy at present obtains three ex-Hamilton cutters or as what the Philippine Navy calls it, the three Del Pilar-class frigates. In this lies the question where several defense outlets are discussing: "Will there be a 4th Del Pilar-class frigate?" But with it comes with considerations where stance, technicalities, and other things are highlighted.

OVERVIEW

BRP Gregorio del Pilar in a crimson sunrise.
Courtesy of its FB page.

Way back in 2015, the Philippines already have two Del Pilar-class frigates in its inventory. Apparently, the discussion of additional ships does not only stop to buy another one but also focusing on the possibility of procuring two more. 

It was then noted in the Coast Guard Acquisition Directorate [pdf; refer to page three] way back in 2011 upon the purchase of BRP Gregorio del Pilar that the Philippines opted to buy three more ships aside from Del Pilar. That in which arises the possibility of having a 4th Hamilton cutter in the Philippine Navy. 

It is known that on the date this article is written, the Navy already has its third Del Pilar Class Frigate BRP Andres Bonifacio (FF-17) painted gray and was sent to Malaysia for Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition 2017. 

In having three Del Pilar frigates in the inventory, having the 4th one seems like a possibility wherein Twitter, the United States Coast Guard reportedly will decommission USCGC Morgenthau (WHEC-722). In this case, one may ask about the idea of obtaining it for spares or having it as a whole where it can complement other vessels. In this discussion, it will answer three questions:

1. How certain really is having a fourth Hamilton cutter given the situation that pertains or arises at present?

2. Presuming the acquisition was pushed through; How ideal is this Hamilton cutter in the Navy will be - as a whole frigate that patrols alongside its other three sister ships? Or as a spare parts provider where the ship itself will be cannibalized and be put to scrap?

3. What is the underlying idea of the navy about the number of ships in respect to the rule of thirds like having three Del Pilar-class frigates (2019 Update: Offshore Patrol Vessels) as what the Sail Plan suggests?

So, let us check on the answers to these questions...

PROCUREMENT CERTAINTY at present terms

BRP Andres Bonifacio FF-17. Courtesy of GMA News.

Given the present situation between the US and the Philippines as well as the respective policies both governments undertake, it seems that it may be less possible for any materialization to take place. Not to mention that aside from the Philippines itself, other nations are after the USCGC Morgenthau which may potentially be either Bangladesh or Nigeria which are also obtaining ex-Hamiltons in their navies. 

In this case, however, will remain to be seen as there will be several changes without prior notice or other things for that matter where it may favor the Philippines or not. Speaking of which, it is at best to keep a close watch for any updates about this ship's decommission and its fate. Moreover, the AFP Modernization Program, through the Philippine Navy's Sail Plan, really calls to procure only three Del Pilar-class frigates rather than four vessels for that matter. The underlying concept of the rule of thirds will be explained below in this article on the third question.

In such a manner, one is asking in the sense that the navy, being keen to the plans at having three patrol frigates (2019 Update: Offshore Patrol Vessel) like the Del-Pilar vessels as what the Sail Plan suggests, why it has still opted for a fourth one? It may pertain to the thing the second question is asking which is the fate of such a ship within the navy.

PRESUMED FOURTH DEL PILAR-CLASS FRIGATE'S FATE
As an active vessel or as a spare parts resource

Via Francis Karem Neri's FB page.

Given a hypothetical scenario where it may be awarded to the Philippines, it is ideal to see as to the nature of these ships wherein its fate is also uncertain even at this point given that the navy in itself may encounter two issues that still persist even at present -- spares for old ships including the ex-Hamiltons and the necessity of having more hulls.

BRP Ramon Alcaraz with a World War 2 corvette. It was then noted that
the Philippine Navy decommissions old ships and cannibalized them for spares
for several in service to continuously operate.

To be specific, the fate of the alleged fourth Del Pilar frigate given the best of luck may be divided among two extremes -that is, either serving as an active vessel where the Philippine Navy badly needs more hulls to patrol the whole archipelago which is one of the largest there is aside from Indonesia or rather, serving as a spare parts stash where the ship will be cannibalized and scrap where its spare parts will be used for the three ships considering that no company ever made any spare parts for these ships for years.

With regards to using it as an active vessel alongside the other Del Pilar-class frigates, one may say that it is a necessity where the Philippine Navy badly needs more hulls to do its mandate to patrol the longest of coastline this archipelagic nation obtains in the sense that upon the presumption of rotational patrols in an idealistic scenario, such vessels may be seen on patrol in different areas of concern ranging from the Sulu Sea to Bashi Channel or rather from Benham Rise to the West Philippine Sea wherein aside from several coast guard vessels, these ships will further enhance presence when it is needed. 

This is, on the maintenance view wherein on all these ships obtained, there will be two of these frigates that are available for patrols, one in a dock for minor repairs as well for reinforcement and one on drydock for major repairs. And it is done at a routine. This is, assuming that a fourth cutter was received and became an active vessel.

Meanwhile, using the cutter as a spare parts stash where the ship will be cannibalized and scrapped while any usable parts will be used for the other ships to operate is also a good idea considering that these 1960s era ex-Hamilton cutters don't have any producers of spares where all of those are gone long ago. Speaking of which, it will be worthless for the other Del Pilar ships considering that it's already-long lifespan will further lengthen through this idea which it was already done against old World War 2 vessels the Philippine Navy have where ships decommission to be cannibalized for the other ships to keep on operating and doing its mandate wherein as part of the Sail Plan, newer hulls may give the chance for old ships to take its rest. 

In the case of the Del-Pilar class vessels, the spare parts will help them operate at longer periods of time considering that being a stop-gap offshore patrol vessel, it improves naval capabilities with regards to safeguarding the waters better than the older World War 2 era ones while newer vessels are planned and yet to be materialized if ever anything goes well.

Choosing between these options is deemed difficult to assess given the areas that are needed to consider especially on the condition of these ships in terms of maintenance as well as the overall condition of the navy where it badly needed hulls both old and new to do its mandate. Speaking of which, the Philippine Navy alongside the Hamilton cutters are also looking after the Countinho-class corvettes of Portugal as well as the Pohang-class corvettes from South Korea wherein sophisticated weaponry aren't really matter, but rather focus on the endurance of these said ships that it is really important to give presence where the said navy ships may help to show presence in disputed waters to prove that the nation fight for its national interests.

Availability of hulls is a necessity to do a certain patrol on the seas done. And for it to be achievable, the availability of spare parts is badly considered. In such a manner, one may say that there shall be a compromise on these forms of availability where the two extremes are either followed completely or partly considered as well as considering not to take these things at all given the uncertainty of things. 

It can be that for example, presuming the deal for Portuguese vessels and Pohang-class corvettes went well make decision-makers having a 4th WHEC a spare parts stash, or rather it can be as a full, functioning vessel if the other deals aren't gone that well or rather, such interest is no longer being considered.

MAINTENANCE CONCEPT WITH THE RULE OF THIRDS

Drydocking is one of the routines in the rule of thirds concept.

So, here is the military concept with regards to the rule of thirds. Given the description, this concept pertains to a military unit or force where one third is in an operation, another one third is preparing for an operation and one third after being in an operation, is under the period of recuperation. 

In this case, the same applies to these Del Pilar-class frigates where one is on active patrols, one is on a dock preparing for patrols and one, being after operations will be returning to the dock for minor maintenance or in drydock for major ones. This is where realizations have been made as to why it is ideal to have three ships or six or 12 for that matter when it comes to procuring them. Speaking of which, this may be the good, if not the best explanation as to why the Sail Plan calls for six missile-armed frigates, three patrol frigates and etc...

CONCLUSION

Given the present situation, it is less possible for the Philippines to procure this ship given the prevailing policies both the governments of the US and the Philippines have. But presuming or for instance that the plans of having a fourth Hamilton cutter taking place, it may be good either as an additional asset or as a spare parts resource where the ship will be cannibalized varying to the situation where other lookup options like the Pohangs and Portuguese corvettes may influence its fate if given the situation. 

Overall, it is at best to have a fourth Hamilton in the sense that it is more to be like a spare parts stash. Having three of these activities in service is enough to suffice the needs where the Sail Plan calls for newer assets to come where these ships will be a stopgap as well as a platform in the transition from World War 2 vessels to modern, more sophisticated ships like the brand new frigates from South Korea.

Share:

Read More

Things That You Need To Know About Benham Rise

This additional part of the so-called Philippine Continental Shelf is promising where its hidden riches will help the country's economy to improve significantly where lives will get any better. However, with present encroachments and international law technicalities, it is to know about how laws observed and actions with suspicion seen as a threat to national security.

HISTORICAL OVERVIEW

Gathered via Philnews website.

The Benham Rise is a submerged volcanic ridge within the Philippine Sea plate, has discovered by American Surveyors and has named after Admiral Andrew Ellicott Kennedy Benham. In 2009, the Philippines lay the claim in Benham Rise for partial territorial waters claim through the United Nations Commission of the Limits of the Continental Shelf in which the main purpose is to expand its territorial baseline and exclusive economic zone (which includes Scarborough Shoal and the Kalayaan island group) as per the Philippine Archipelagic Baselines Law which was also enacted on that year. Apparently, the said law has used as the basis for the claim wherein upon examining the underwater geography of the area through its location lying east of Luzon and west of Philippine Basin and the seismic and the other geological features lie in this claim where it really conforms to the requirements given by the United Nations Convention on the Law Of the Sea (UNCLOS). It was then in April 2012, around three years later, that they awarded the claim to the Philippines, where it gives more validation for confirming that the Benham Rise is a continental shelf part of the Philippines.

CURRENT EVENTS

A Chinese Navy Type 636A Survey Vessel

Recent news shows up that the Chinese have their survey ship wandering in the Benham Rise apparently where it has discovered through the satellite photos provided by the allies. It has also reported then that a survey ship lurked in the area for around three months, intending to seek submarine shelters wherein one may see it as a strategic zone accessing the large body of water, which is the Pacific Ocean. In this sense, it seems to be a national security concern considering that Benham Rise, being in the other side of the Philippines where it is far away from China or any of the key flashpoints of the West Philippine Sea, is still being lurked by a Survey Vessel which by technicalities made by UNCLOS are valid. How could that be? It is a national security concern where the said vessel is suspicious in its actions, yet by international law they have treated as they acted accordingly? This is how UNCLOS guidelines set in.

UNCLOS INTERPRETATION

A guide for archipelagic baselines. Via Asian Maritime Reviews.

Apparently, the Chinese' actions are justified through innocent passage wherein they are outside the usual 12nm territorial waters and within 200nm EEZ which, in terms of Freedom of Navigation, does considered as international waters, in which ships of different nationalities freely pass the area without intrusions.

With that, let us take the perspective of UNCLOS. As for the Benham Rise, they considered it as a continental shelf of the Philippines. Apparently, article 76 of UNCLOS refers to the definition of "continental shelf" in the sense how it has interpreted through the eyes of international law. 

Also, the article 77 further reiterates about the role of a coastal state or an archipelagic one like the Philippines wherein it clearly states that the said state having exercising its rights over its continental shelf shall not infringe or result in any unjustifiable interference with navigation and other rights and freedoms of other states as provided for in this Convention. 

Speaking of which, there are justifications because albeit the considerations for Benham Rise being a submerged feature belonging to the Philippines, the said country shall not fully enforce any maritime violations against like for instance, the survey ship of China wherein as for the statements the Chinese Foreign Ministry have, has been there under the rule of innocent passage. 

However, it will be a different scenario for the Philippines if the said country like China for example, drills for Natural Gas in the area where it is in direct violation from UNCLOS in the sense that resources within the Exclusive Economic Zone or in the Continental Shelf such as the Benham Rise have reserved for the Philippines to use. 

That comes in the sense that there is no permission had made, which is sufficient for the Philippines to justify its actions in order to defend the country and its national interest.

The articles in the UNCLOS convention agreements set a bar for each nation to follow, especially the Republic of the Philippines. The national interest in the Exclusive Economic Zone or Continental Shelf goes under the international law, wherein things will be gone orderly. In this sense, the guidelines and its interpretations are so clear about the exercises of rights and privileges, as well as the limits regarding that matter.

DEFENSE DEPARTMENT'S COURSE OF ACTION

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana. (Via ABS-CBN News)

Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that the actions the Chinese survey ship has in the area is indeed worrying in the sense that it threatens the national security of the nation. 

The actions made by the Chinese, albeit the conditions qualifying it as an innocent passage by UNCLOS, have not really seen as what the SND Lorenzana explicate considering that the said ship was loitering there for weeks or apparently for three months. Speaking of which, the Chinese explanation at this point of view is really not that convincing given the Chinese's long record of deception starting from their incursions of the Mischief Reef in the mid-90s. 

The palace being alarmed on the situation and as it gets worrying; the government mulls to increase patrols with the use of coast guard vessels and building structures in the area where the latter may consider as something that is difficult to have, considering that the sea it is situated is too deep to put up a structure unlike those in the West Philippine Sea where shallow features exist. In simplifying this matter, it may count as  good news for the matter that the government is aware about the matter and will definitely do necessary actions to ensure the safety of the country as well as securing its national interest especially on Benham Rise where it may come with its rich natural resources that may benefit the economy of the country once exploited in due time.

A PROMISING CONCLUSION

BRP Gregorio Velasquez (ex-Melville), a survey ship of the Philippine Navy, which is a gift from the US.

Given the situation in Benham Rise, it may count as an incursion made by the Chinese that made things alarming but in accordance to the international law, it may be seen as a valid move considering that UNCLOS implies the Exclusive Economic Zone as international waters where any vessels are free to navigate which is also considered as innocent passage. 

However, the suspicion about the loitering of the ship (which differs from passage) makes it worrying to the government especially the defense department that prompts them to seek an explanation of the Chinese Government on the matter where in return, they said that the Philippines cannot claim Benham Rise as its territory, which holds some truth in it since it only pertains to continental shelf as per the article 76/77 of the UNCLOS rules. 

But that does not convince the government wherein return the Philippines are seeking to increase patrols in the area and looking for more plans to assert its stance in the area by mere presence. Speaking of which, it may serve as a driving force for the Department of National Defense to further enhance the so-called Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) not only on Benham Rise but as well on the more complicated disputes of the West Philippine Sea. In this, the country will not only defend its very existence against foreign and domestic adversaries but also assert its national interest where it may find the best in the sense that every citizen will benefit interest will make lives better.

===========================================================

UPDATES

The BRP Ramon Alcaraz (FF-16) conducted patrols in the Benham Rise in which it counts as a good move from the Philippine Navy considering that deploying it in the area is to be seen as a show of flag or rather, a good presence wherein that it gives the sign that this part of waters is under the Philippines' national interest and being within its sovereign rights as a nation to exploit its rich, natural resources.

Here, it counts as a promising thing that in matters like this, as the Philippine Navy still lacks ships to do its mandate and still in improving its fleet, they are still patrolling the Benham Rise with only one ship capable of staying there for a month and capable to take in the large waves of the Pacific Ocean. These in which gives hope and an idea to further enhance the Modernization Program through Sail Plan 2020 where national interest will be much secured than ever and it will be nothing to worry about by its citizens of the republic.

(c) 2017 PDA. First edition 8-5-2022.

Share:

Read More

The War Scenario on the Execution of Swarm Tactics in the West Phil. Sea

It's always been an idea of a certain military planner that deploying MPACs for swarm tactics in the West Philippine Sea is the good one where a certain large warship is being overwhelmed with the number of small, maneuverable vessels like for instance, a Multipurpose attack craft or MPAC. However, it is not always the case.


OVERVIEW

Soldiers of the Philippine Marine Corps disembarking from the MPAC
Mk.2, an asset that is currently in service with the Philippine Navy.
Image courtesy to the Nation States website.

Swarm tactics by nature are to ensure speedy and well-coordinated attacks where the main purpose is to overwhelm the enemy's defenses and to sink or either damage it. That is what the then Philippine Fleet spokesperson Rommel Rodriguez have said last 2014 in this article by InterAksyon. Since then, the said tactics are being raised again and again until most recently the Iranians employ such tactics in the Strait of Hormuz which causes the US Naval Forces to change course wherein it gives an insight as to the ideas where it can also apply to the Philippines as well against the Chinese. 

Speaking of that though, the way Iranians deploy such tactics may inspire Philippine military planners to do the same thing where these cost-effective MPACs may wreak havoc against a certain ship, for instance, a frigate patrolling in the disputed waters. But then again, all of these things come up into consideration. That is, how beneficial is such a tactic in the Philippine war effort in the sense that it boost morale or rather, showing its effectiveness in comparison to the losses that the navy could bear in the said tactic?

THE ANALYSIS

Iranian Navy Fast Attack Crafts in the Strait of Hormuz. Source

In this case, in a swarm tactic, several parameters need to see where the number of vessels needed per target ship, as well as the kind of military vessel used and the capabilities such craft, obtain in such a manner wherein it will use to induce damage on a target ship like for instance, a military frigate. 

The main point of such a tactic is for the ship's defense system like secondary guns in a form of RWS or CIWS will be divided where there will be multiple targets to get shoot at for that matter wherein there will be at least one or two craft manage to destroy some vital parts of the ship or even sink the ship varying to the extent of the damage made by an attack.

The use of Multipurpose Attack Crafts

The main idea of using MPACs for a swarm tactic traces back to 2014 in a statement made by the Philippine Fleet spokesperson wherein an ideal number of having six MPACs hunting a frigate like a wolf pack closing in on its prey.

The first two batches (Mark 1 and 2) of MPACs are only armed with machine guns while the third batch (Mark 3) will be armed with a Spike-ER missile from Israel which was produced by Rafael. The approximate range of the missiles is 5.3 kilometers at its full effectiveness. Apparently, these crafts are designed for an amphibious mission, maritime interdictions like law enforcement and patrols, and other purposes the Navy sees it working like the so-called swarm tactic offensives.

In this manner, with the present number of Multipurpose Attack Crafts in the inventory (3 Mk 1s, 3 Mk 2s, and the incoming 3 Mk 3s) is still not sufficient where Chinese shipyards are churning warships were in a short span of time are already completed and ready for combat. Moreover, the range of the Spike-ER missiles as comparable to the ship's guns larger than 40mm will not save those on board the craft where the ship's defense will surely destroy an MPAC to pieces. Not also to mention that having missiles or even torpedoes for that matter, installed on an attack craft like an MPAC will affect the overall speed of the vessel wherein it undermines the tactical effectiveness. Add to that the hull of these Multipurpose Attack Crafts are only capable to handle Sea State 3 where it can only capsize in the West Philippine Sea's Sea State 4 and above environment, unlike the target frigates where it can endure such conditions.

The better thing for the MPACs to do for its purpose is simply being a Littoral Vessel where the other roles aforementioned will be done in the sense that the full benefit of the craft will be at hand. Not to mention that in a swarm tactic, many MPACs will be lost in the process in parallel to its procurement that usually separates in batches and projects divided into lots where one is for the hull and the other is for armaments as well as the time building the crafts. These things which we need to consider.

Overall, deploying crafts into battle is somewhat comparable to a suicide tactic where the chances of death by attacking the ship full throttle is deemed high as well as it is also costly considering that losing experienced personnel like the craft also takes time. Therefore, such a tactic of using these small assets is not an ideal thing.

The use of Fast Attack Crafts

The use of fast attack crafts (FACs) in a swarm tactic is already a mainstream thing in Iran where recently it involves US warships. In that sense, these said fast attack crafts will be a bit larger than the usual 15 to 18-meter long MPACs were given estimates of having a size at around 50 to 60 meters.

Sheldag Mk. V by IAI Elta Israel.

One may say that these said vessels are a bit larger to employ a swarm attack unless we have other interpretations of it such as the Iranian crafts which are a bit smaller than MPACS. It may be in a greater size in the sense that it has better firepower than the MPACS. A handy of these vessels say with a long-range Anti-ship missile being armed in these ships will be sufficient enough to wreak damage on the target ship like for instance, a Chinese frigate.

For an emphasis in this matter, let us take the points of somebody working at CIMSEC commenting on the thread about swarm tactics and fast attack crafts. 
**Note: For the sake of privacy, profile photos have been omitted.**

In such a manner, a missile boat or a fast attack craft armed with a better anti-ship missile system will wreak havoc against the larger warships in the sense that a swarm tactic may be employed in a different stance. In this case, one can see a number of these vessels firing missiles altogether in a fully coordinated attack. Given the circumstances where speed and counteractions for that matter, it may be sufficient enough for a strike to take a toll on the ship where significant damage had been made or in a better case, a sinking ship.

Given the plans of the Philippine Navy on FACs, they are eyeing Israeli shipyards where last year they visited Israeli shipyards where they are offered by the company their product which is the Sheldag FAC. Being larger in dimension than the MPAC, as well as
being equipped with the NLOS which has a longer range than the ER, one can say that obtaining them will be helpful in a scenario when a mission involves sinking a frigate with swarm tactics. But with few reports about the outcome of this project, that remains to be seen.

The Strategy in General

Now back to the reports involving the Iranian Navy employing swarm tactics in the Strait of Hormuz against the Americans. One may say that if it works in this part of the world, then it should also work in the West Philippine Sea. However, that is always not the case.

First and foremost, the Iranians do such tactics in the Strait of Hormuz which geographically speaking the sea passages are narrow and confined which only leaves a little room for larger combat warships like frigates and destroyers to maneuver which a smaller craft can exploit, operate, and have its mission to destroy a big ship be possible while the West Philippine Sea is dotted with features like reefs and rocks lying in an open, wide ocean where a larger warship can freely operate and can dictate its range and speed of an arrangement as well as the endurance of the ship that puts these ships in an advantage over the smaller crafts where a possible shooting spree may take place. Another is that in engaging terms, the Chinese tend to fire first and throwing accusations later where the said swarm tactic in the open sea will be rendered useless as a portion of the attacking fleet will be gone before any execution to open fire and destroy the targets if it is in the case for the crafts like the multipurpose attack crafts. Somehow, the highly dedicated fast attack crafts may stand a chance where long-range missiles, presumably in this case may reach their target where the said attack crafts may still have time to maneuver themselves out to protect themselves from counterattack.

In such a case, the tactics themselves are ideal if the weapons platform used is also that ideal. Not also to mention that the said swarm tactics can be also used by the Philippine Fleet within territorial waters where respective islands serve as a cover for initiating an attack. However, the enemy has no intention of entering the said waters or it may invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty which surely pulls the US at war. Moreover, these tactics may be employed properly if the use of FACs as well as having other combatants in the back for support like missile-armed frigates for instance doing proper coordination between these units may be a thing between defeat and victory. (You may check this post about this discussion)

CONCLUSION

Ships like the Del Pilar-class frigates have better endurance than
smaller crafts in an open sea. Courtesy of BRP Gregorio del Pilar FF-15 FB page.

Swarm tactics, like the use of submarines in asymmetrical forms of warfare, are ways of ensuring victory over the enemies. In such a case, the decision-makers do see a nice idea over this concept where it divides primary defense guns of a warship on aiming multiple targets. 

However, it also comes at a cost where a portion of small vessels wiped out in the open with personnel killed in action. In such a case, MPACS are better seen as a littoral vessel designed to do amphibious missions and territorial interdictions in the way the BRP Tarlac is also used only with the advantage of being a command center. This in which one may think that the Landing Platform Docks with MPACs inside may be the hybrid form of swarm tactic they may looking for, but there is more unto that. 

Fast attack crafts on that case, a bit larger than the MPACs in the case of either Super Dvora or the Shaldag which are both from Israel may be a good platform to do such tactic where speed, maneuverability, coordination, and longer-range missiles will do a thing but their certainty of being procured remain uncertain. But one thing is considered. That is, the idea of Swarm Tactics if properly executed and with the use of proper weapons will be successful. But with only having a handful of MPACS in inventory, it is at best to set aside this strategy for a while, not until fast attack crafts or corvettes rather are being procured. 

This is to minimize losses as well as putting naval assets in the proper way in which as the AFP Modernizes itself, the possibility of having the fullest of activities will be at hand. With that, it is deemed better on sticking with deterrence where military power is at balance and properly calculated among nations alongside diplomacy.

Share:

Read More